17.jan.07
Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116898527290578058.html
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the first known human infection of avian flu's H5N1 strain, the virus has not, according to this editorial, mutated into a form that's easily spread between humans. While vigilance is warranted, pandemic-level mass casualties and worries of economic collapse seem increasingly far-fetched.
That's because H5N1 is fundamentally an animal disease. It spreads relatively easily between birds but struggles to implant itself in humans. So far, all of the cases identified have appeared in people who had prolonged close exposure to sick birds or prolonged close exposure to sick people. H5N1 doesn't spread from a casual sneeze, like the common cold.
Scientific studies cast doubt on how likely that situation is to change.
The editorial goes on to say that as for the situation on the ground in Asia, the news is better than some headlines suggest. The number of infected humans is still very low, relative to other diseases. Last week, China, a country of 1.3 billion, announced its first human death from H5N1 in six months. By way of comparison, 17 Chinese died of tuberculosis per 100,000 residents in 2004, the most recent year for which data are available.
Bird flu can also be controlled through better prevention and surveillance, which makes the disease less likely to appear in the first place and easier to stop quickly when it does. As the nearby chart shows, countries such as Thailand and Vietnam -- which instituted tighter surveillance of poultry populations and culled exposed populations -- have seen their incidence of bird flu deaths drop dramatically since they were caught flat-footed in 2003. Vietnam has also rolled out a poultry vaccination program. Australia, which hasn't yet reported any H5N1 cases of its own, launched the world's largest pandemic flu simulation last October -- a A$4.1 million ($3.2 million) affair involving 1,000 people. Fifty-five observers from 15 countries watched and compared notes.
Bird flu remains the biggest danger in countries that have been the slowest to act against it -- notably Indonesia, where the problem is further compounded by a dispersed poultry population. While most Thai and Vietnamese chickens live on large farms, many Indonesians raise their own poultry, making it harder to control outbreaks in the bird population. Cambodia, another H5N1 hot zone, lacks the infrastructure necessary for effective surveillance.
That being said, there's a big difference between improving surveillance and preparing for the possibility of a pandemic on the one hand, and panic on the other. Chickens have good cause to be petrified of H5N1. Humans are another story.